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Tuttavia, non c’era alcun effetto gateway nel gruppo molto più ampio “tutti gli altri”
Ci sono sempre altri fattori di confusione a cui non abbiamo pensato o che non abbiamo misurato. Ad esempio, da nessuna parte nel set di dati che sto guardando vedo una variabile per "lo spacciatore vive a pochi passi" che potrebbe essere importante sapere.
L’analisi delle variabili strumentali è un approccio fondamentalmente diverso ai dati osservativi, che, per me, ha molto più fascino.
Ecco l’idea. Trovi una variabile (un "strumento") che è associato all’esposizione ma NON al risultato, tranne che tramite l’esposizione.
Suona familiare? È la stessa salsa segreta che rende così eccezionale una prova randomizzata.
Se stiamo cercando di valutare la relazione tra fumo di marijuana e consumo di cocaina, dobbiamo pensare a una variabile associata all’uso di erba, ma non all’uso di cocaina, tranne, potenzialmente, attraverso l’uso di erba. Facciamo un brainstorming:
Povertà: chiaramente no. La povertà è associata alla nostra esposizione, ma anche al nostro risultato. E la povertà può portare al consumo di cocaina in assenza di uso di marijuana, quindi NON è uno strumento valido. Uso di Facebook: pensiero interessante. Forse gli utenti di Facebook fumano più erba (sfortunatamente non ho un set di dati per supportarlo), ma non posso sostenere una chiara motivazione sul motivo per cui potrebbe essere, e perché qualunque cosa si tratti di Facebook non li metterebbe ANCHE su rischio di consumo di cocaina. Continue reading Tuttavia, non c’era alcun effetto gateway nel gruppo molto più ampio “tutti gli altri”
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